Australian Agriculture & Potential impact of Trumpian politics.

Australian Agriculture & Potential impact of Trump politics. 

It's been a while, but it's time to start blogging again. If only to save the sanity of all my friends who have to listen to my political thoughts and concerns. 

Starting to get that pit of the stomach feeling at actions of Trump in USA and potential ramifications for Australian Agriculture industry.

Trump’s tariff threats are flying fast and furiously, aimed at any nation which isn't the USA.

My concern for Australia is, the demand and sales for Australian beef and lamb to American consumers will dramatically fall.

This would be a pattern with every nation he decides to kick. Take for example China / USA soybean trade.

“If additional tariffs are imposed, China is expected to retaliate immediately, targeting grains and oilseeds, especially soybeans. However, the impact on China's soybean market may be less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war due to: (1) higher state reserve inventories, (2) increased imports from Brazil, and (3) China’s growing adaptation to low-protein feed formulas, which reduce soymeal use and the need for imported soybeans.” (RaboBank Research, 2nd January 2025)


What worries me, is the potential for Trump’s policies to kick off a global recession - or worse, a global depression.

Now. If that happens Australian wool prices will also tank too.

The overall impact to Australian agriculture could be considerably worse than it would have been if the then Labor Govt hadn’t intervened during the GFC. Now just heap on devastation if the MAGA-channelling Peter Dutton and the LNP coalition are elected this year…..

There are already reports coming out of the USA by individual farmers they are cancelling share cropping, as they believe the tariffs are going to hurt their supplier chains. They are self reporting having trouble securing loans, because Lenders / Financial sector are getting nervous. 

However these seem to be points mainstream media is largely avoiding - or not noticing.

Trump’s mass deportations are an issue too, as this is already starting to have an impact on USA’s orchardists and horticulturalist ability to harvest their product. There is also potential to significantly impact the USA’s meat processing industry.

Talking about this, over a 'Leftie Latte' at some length this morning and becoming increasingly concerned, by what we are seeing and hearing, and the potential catastrophic impact on Australian agriculture.

There’s a very real risk here that things could go so badly, banks start issuing forecloses. Given the previous experiences of 'Liberal' Party policies on many farming families - the Liberal National Coalition (LNP) will always put the Banks, 1st and shaft everyone else. (Yes I will NEVER forgive them.

In Australia, we need to baton down the hatches and start supporting local. Don’t be surprised when you see members of Australian farming families, looking for off farm jobs and consider how much that increases the on farm workload on those left running it and juggling children without them.

Buy Australian, from Australian companies, support local businesses, support the unions and - vote for the party or independents running the policies LEAST like Trump, MAGA, Project2025.

Don’t do a USA and vote like as if it's Red Team V Blue Team game. 

Don’t vote based on cult of personality - vote based on policy. Read Project2025, listen to Trump, avoid ANY and all candidates or party sounding like that.

Also take a look at which multinational companies (including retailers e.g Target, and Walmart) aren’t protecting their diversity employees (DEI) and remember that’s everyone except white men. If you’re a woman in the USA, even a white one, your job is not safe.

As to the USA:

Honestly. If you live in the USA you should start planting a veg garden. Even if it’s just pots on a balcony.

If you’re a dual national, or have right to abode elsewhere - get the hell out of the USA, particularly if you’re NOT a white male.

The political nerd in me is watching the global news thinking, ok we’re probably hitting one of those knife edge moments in geopolitical history. The realist in me is thinking we should expect the worst and hope for the best.

I REALLY hope I’m wrong, but only time will tell. Just please Universe - let me be wrong.

 

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 Links & in the News:

US-China trade war: no turning back, 8 August 2019 23:41 RaboResearch

The President Proposes......... 

Trump’s trade policy: Risks for Australia

WA primary producers brace for impact of Trump tariffs

Australia’s economic security outlook: Expert perspectives on challenges facing Australia in 2025

 

 

 

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Freedom of speech is never free.

Deepest condolences to the McCrow, Arnold and Dare families, friends and their communities. 

What unfolded near Chinchilla this week is an absolute tragedy, which should never have occurred.

I'd like to say once is enough, but this was not the first ambushing of Police resulting in death.

Whilst the events of this week will be investigated and eventually land with the Coroner, there is no longer any doubt; Australia MUST to now look at role and responsibilities of Murdoch controlled meda, Social Media, PHON in feeding and enabling the imported US style culture wars, conspiracy theories, hate speech and deeply divisive politics and mentality which led to this.

Freedom of speech is never free, it ALWAYS comes with responsibilities and real world consequences. 
 
What we’ve seen here is the real world consequence of hate speech and sovereign citizen movement (aka SovCit) , QAnon, MAGA style, Cooker conspiracy theories, play out to an horrific end. One which at time of writing appears to have lured police to their own execution.
 
Too often with hate speech it is innocent people who pay with their lives and history of humanity is full of examples. 
 
It took one event - Port Arthur to sort out gun laws nationally across Australia.
 
Let’s hope those on all sides of politics will do same on this now. Media, social media and domestic counter terror laws MUST catch up NOW. 
 
This is Australia - not the USA. Once was once too much, lets hope all sides of politics now realise that legislation is long overdue. 
 
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Housing Crisis Tasmania: A Tale Of Political Arrogance & Property Industry Greed.....

There's been a lot of noise in the Media recently about the nation-wide housing crisis and I've been particularly vocal about it. 

 

If anyone is in any doubts as to how bad the rental crisis in Tasmania now is, then I’m here to tell you the reality. What you’re about to read is not an anomaly, but the reality for almost every renter in the state – if not the country. 

 

For a myriad of reasons, we started renting in 2017. Since then we’ve had to endure moving every 12 to 18mths. It's now 5 houses, 3 within the last 2.5years. Of these 3 were sold, one house the owners needed to move in themselves and the house we are currently in is the 5th. 

 

There's been very little difference in the size of these houses, but rents have gone from $420p/w to $600p/w whilst condition have gone from immaculate to - depressing. 

 

At this current rental, nothing works properly. It’s now 4wks since stove / oven gave up completely. We reported that it was failing when we moved in 7mths ago. As yet the Real Estate Agent won’t even give date for new install. This is the 3rd place in a row we've rented which has had stove and / or oven issues.

 

The current rented house we are living in, is owned by an interstate investor who bought it without ever setting foot in it and apparently have still never been here.

This has me pondering:

 

How many residential dwellings in Tasmania are owned by people who are not Tasmanian?

 

How much of total residential property in Tasmania is ‘investment’ not owner/ occupier?

 

I have two choices at this point. I can take this (and PAGES of other breaches) to Residential TenancyCommissioner (aka RTC), who will do zero beyond tell them off (and in 6mths our lease won’t be renewed and we will never get a rental approval again in Tasmania); or fight for Tasmanian Resident Tenancy Act to be binned and replaced with model which puts secure housing at and centre. Hopefully helping every renter in the state. 

 

Tasmania is not an isolated case; these issues are Australia wide. We can’t fix the nation, but we can make Tasmania better and then hope the rest follow.

 

Even if I were able to buy my own home tomorrow - this is no longer I fight I’m going to be backing down from. 

 

At a Tasmanian political level the approach of: Liberals, Labor and Greens seems to be to push for greater investment in Public Housing. There are two major issues here: 

 

The Tasmanian Liberal Govt ‘policy’ seems to be 10,000 homes rolled out over 10 years. The numbers here don’t stack up. It needs to be 10,000 homes over 5 years. To date most of this seems to be sound bite, media release and publicity. 

 

Public housing is only one key component in an over all solution, but that is not the message, which is being given. All three political parties are largely ignoring or too frightened to address issues within the private rental market. 


In doing so they are completely ignoring the fact that the Tasmanian Residential Tenancy Act (1997) is and always has been completely unfit for purpose and needs to be binned, by not admitting this and replacing it with a model which place an emphasis on basic human right to safe, secure, affordable long term security of housing; such as those of European nations like France or Germany; they are CHOOSING to ignore the fact that median income earners will still be trapped in the same rental spiral ineligible for public housing due to their incomes and ineligible for home loans – due to their incomes.

 

There are two exceptions. David O’Byrne (Labor) and Cassie O’Connor (Green). 

 

However, what has disappeared from the conversation and media reporting is the conditions renters are now silent being forced to tolerate; things which under the existing Act they are supposed to be basic requirements, urgent or emergency repairs etc. 

 

These are my thoughts for the day as I try to work out WTF I’m going microwave for the family’s dinner tonight, but this won’t be the last blog posted on this topic. 

 __________________________________________________________________

In the news: 

Full Text: 'TIME FOR A RADICAL RETHINK ON HOUSING', op-ed byDavid O'Byrne MP

Printed, Hobart Mercury 13th July 2022.

 

The Tasmanian private housing sector is showing signs of market failure. Home ownership is increasingly unaffordable for many Tasmanians, rents are skyrocketing and waiting times for social housing are at record levels. It is a crisis and has been now for a number of years. 

 

Peter Gutwein’s recently announced ‘arms-length’ Housing Corporation is a flawed model. It fails to recognise that Government has a direct responsibility to act when markets fail or become distorted. The Liberals’ latest housing policies avoid this responsibility, misdiagnose the problem, and will not improve housing affordability for either first home buyers or renters. Continuing to provide (expensive) public subsidies for both the supply and demand side of the private market is a certain recipe for fuelling further rises in rents and prices, and will do nothing to reduce social housing waiting lists. A new approach is needed based on active Government intervention in the market, and a big increase in public housing supply. 

 

In the twelve months to February 2022 Hobart property prices increased by 28% and regional Tasmanian prices by 30%. A house in Hobart costs more than in Adelaide, Brisbane, Darwin and Perth, with the median price now being more than $700,000. And while price growth may slow in the coming year, further substantial increases are likely. 

 

House prices are now nearly ten times average incomes – putting home ownership out of reach for many younger Tasmanians. And abnormally low interest rates mask the longer term financial stress likely to be experienced by already established home owners servicing larger mortgages. 

 

The Tasmanian rental market is now the most expensive in Australia. Hobart rents average $521 per week – a 13% increase in the last year. Launceston had an even bigger increase of 14%. Rental vacancy rates are the worst in Australia with Hobart at 0.9%, Launceston at 0.8% and the North West at 1.3%. Tasmanians in the private rental market are typically spending close to 40% of their income on housing. 

 

The average waiting time for priority listed social housing applicants is 71 weeks and the waiting list is nearly 5000 people – a 75% increase since the Liberals took office. 

 

Increasing the supply of private housing stock can play a role in moderating price and rent increases, but there are limits to this approach given the structure and dynamics of the private housing market. Not all demand for housing comes from would be owner occupiers, with a significant segment of demand driven by investors seeking capital gains and/or rental yields. Amongst the $6.2 billion in Tasmanian home sales over the last 12 months there were around 1800 first home purchasers but more than 2300 investment purchasers, and there is often competition between the interests of these distinct buyer groups. And the history of the housing market cycle suggests that the market will retain the price levels achieved in each ‘boom’ period even in the face of increases in private housing supply. 

 

The Liberals’ recent and now expanded initiatives – cash incentives for first home buyers, stamp duty concessions, low income rental subsidies, land tax reductions and shared equity in private housing purchases – have failed (and will fail) to moderate rising prices for first home buyers and low income renters. While beneficial for those who have received and will receive them, these continuing initiatives will, paradoxically, continue to add to rising prices in the private market. 

 

New interventionist policies need to moderate the housing market and improve ownership and rental affordability for low and middle income earners. The supply of Tasmanian public housing has dramatically contracted in the last decade, falling from 11,500 in 2010 to just over 7,000 in 2020. While new community housing has helped offset the decline in public stock, the total stock of public and community housing is lower than it was twenty years ago. Small wonder that the public/social housing waiting lists continue to rise. 

 

To put it simply, more of the same policy approach simply will not cut it. 

 

Expanding State built and owned public housing stock should be the focus of a new housing policy. Tasmania needs to re-establish the State Housing Commission (a proud and successful achievement of earlier State Labor Governments), updated for contemporary needs and fit for purpose in the twenty first century. 

 

The Commission would build new public housing using a blended model of rental and rent to buy for low and middle income earners. It should aim to build no fewer than 10,000 new public dwellings over a decade, on top of the planned expansion of community housing, with prices for equity shares being at a discount to the prevailing private market rate, subject to income and asset test eligibility. Sale and resale of properties would remain inside the public housing sector for a defined period as a mechanism to smooth the wider market. And the Commission would integrate emergency, transitional and supported accommodation into its wider construction plans. 

 

As an actor in the wider market the Commission would increase supply, put downward pressure on future house price rises (without undermining current asset values) and allow low and middle income Tasmanians to have access to affordable rental accommodation and aspire to home ownership.

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In other news: 

 
 
 


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Roe verses Wade and 14th Amendment.

Yesterday I had a private message from a friend who is of opinion all this ‘Roe V Wade’ stuff is ’Left Wing Talking Point Cliché’. Making the point that abortion is a state issue.

 

I wonder how many others have had similar responses from friends or family members and wonder how many people do not realise what could also end up being at stake.

 

As such I would also like to point out that what is under threat here is NOT just Roe V Wade and women’s access to safe medical abortion.

 

It’s MUCH worse than most people realise, as it means this re-interpretation of 14th Amendment under “substantive due process clause” may potentially allow the same rationale which allowed Roe v Wade to be overturned, to also be applied to:

·       Women’s right to access and use contraception

·       Reverse legality interracial marriage

·       Reverse legality of same sex marriage etc.

 

On the day Roe v Wade was dumped, Google searches for ‘moving to Canada’; from within USA jumped 850% so clearly many Americans are getting concerned.

 

My conclusion is - what is happening in the USA should NOT be minimised and is potentially extremely serious.

 

We should also remember that USA’s Supreme Court Justices are jobs for LIFE and they are politically appointed.

 

What worries me is that Australia is that Murdoch has a stranglehold on Australia’s media and we’ve seen what that’s capable of before. Australia has one of the most concentrated media ownership of any democratic country in the world with Murdoch having control or ownership of around 69% the right wing leaning media bias is then extended further with the ownership of the media ownership / control of Kerry Stokes and Peter Costello.

 

This isn’t about left vs. right. This is 100% about human rights vs. religious fundamentalism. As we are now witnessing in the USA - All it takes is the wrong people in the right key positions.

 


 In the News:

The overturning of Roe v Wade couldn't happen in Australia - BUT.....
Before Roe v Wade fell, Gerri Santoro's death galvanised America's abortion movement. This is her story
 
Searches for how to move to Canada
Fourteenth Amendment: United States Constitution
 

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Renting & The Housing Crisis

As always, life the universe get in the way of blogging intentions. Which is why I'm going to do something different. 

Australia is in the midst of a housing crisis. Many are now stuck in rental's and finding rents sky rocketing and conditions deteriorating - or becoming homeless. 

These aren't just people we would normally consider vulnerable, but those on double median incomes. Many with families. 

Finding myself now trapped in this cycle, I've joined many groups and spoken directly to people stuck in this situation. I could write on this forever, but I also have a business to run and family and really believe first hand experiences are important - so I would like your contributions, your comments and shares. retweets etc. 

These voices, your voices need to be national. Whilst each state has it's own residential tenancy act and each state has it's own tenancy union, the issues renters are experiencing state to state do not vary. Which is why I'd like to hear and see the voices of those from across the country. Your experiences and your suggested solutions for moving forward.

 

For those willing to contribute please send me an email here, but please remember to state which state you are in and whether you wish to remain anonimous. Your contribution will be published to this blog site without editing (although swearing will be redacted) because this is your voice, your thoughts and experiences. 


email: vacuousnessblog@gmail.com

 

From time to time, I may also open this blog up to comments - but they will be moderated before going live. 








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Covid Australia: Every Disaster Movie Starts With A Scientist Being Ignored.

Updated: 1st January 2022
It's the last day of 2021 and Australian heads are spinning. Instead of entering the New Year with all the usual expectation of potential and possibilities Australians now find themselves feeling angry and confused. The fear amongst many is palpable. 
 

In 1st wave, the Liberal National Coalition (LNP) Govt chose to sacrifice Australia’s elderly, until under state govts. took the imitative to start closing borders, initiate covid testing and mask wearing. All whilst Morrison told Australia he was 'off to the footy' that weekend.

 

This time the same govt has chosen to put Australian babies, toddlers and pre-schoolers at risk; these as hospitals overseas are experiencing surges in paediatric hospital admissions. 

 

The Australian Govt and State Govts are acting AGAINST advice of Australian Medical Association (AMA).

 

Not for the first time the Scott Morrison, Liberal National Coalition Govt has placed industry lobbyists and self-interest ahead of vulnerable Australians.

 

A growing number of Australians are equally disgusted with state Premiers for signing off on this. This had already been gaining momentum in Tasmania since around the 17th December 2021 when the state govt reopened the borders. Within hours Tasmanian's being notified of close and casual infections surfacing within a community, which had largely been Covid free. 

 

Today (12/31/2021) the Tasmanian Govt announced that it would no longer require mandatory testing for interstate members of the public entering the state. Whilst those attempting to obtain tests are reporting being informed not all testing costs will be covered by Medicare. Tasmania is a state with a healthcare system struggling on a good day and it's already clear, their contact and trace systems have become overwhelmed and no all but abandoned. 

Image: Aus Medical Assoc.

Madness, given Tasmanian Govt's own modeling showed:

Modelling scenarios

Borders open with no public health measures in place, but a high level of contact tracing

  • 77,000 cases in 200 days
  • 214 deaths
  • 387 cases a day
  • 636 cases in hospital, and 168 in intensive care during the peak of the outbreak

Borders open with current public health measures in place, and high level of contact tracing

  • 52,000 cases in 200 days
  • 87 deaths
  • Possible daily peak of 242 cases
  • 242 cases hospitalised, and 68 in intensive care at peak of outbreak

Borders open with increased public health measures, and high level of contact tracing

  • 43,000 cases in 200 days
  • 60 deaths
  • 213 cases a day
  • 179 cases hospitalised, and 56 in intensive care at the peak of outbreak.
  •  

Yet within 17 day of opening the state to travelers, the state govt has decided to scale down contact tracing. Today (01/01/2022) 19 days after opening the state borders confirmed cases of Covid19 in Tasmania have sky rocketed from ZERO to 428 in <19days and there doesn't appear to be any modeling available for this scenario. Why not? Where is the modeling? How did Tasmania come to the conclusion it did?

 

There is every possibility that Tasmanian Hospitals will not cope with a rapidly escalating covid outbreak and if Tasmania follows overseas patterns - it does NOT have a dedicated children's hospital. Most Tasmanian's seem oblivious that the state's sickest children are normally made as stable as possible and flown to Melbourne - often with dedicated Paediatric Emergency Teams FROM Melbourne.

 

If Scott, (I refuse to call him Prime Minister, as an infected hair follicle on Disraeli’s ball sack would have make a better PM), wants Australians to ‘take responsibility for your own health’, I suggest we do this at next election and consign the Liberal & National Parties to history.

 

Australia was in a unique position, it had been hard fought for and within less than a month and against scientific and medical advice - it has been all too casually tossed aside, along with the health and lives of babies, toddlers, pre-schoolers, cancer patients, the immunocompromised.

 

Incidently, those Rapid Antigen Kits the Australian Govt is promising.... how many of you are aware, Australia LOST the development of these kits to the USA, because the Australian Govt wouldn't provide funding support - and the USA would. So again R&D was lost overseas: just add to the list after: black box flight recorder, solar panels, rapid chargers for EV's, Bluetooth, Ultra sound technology, LAN technology etc. Prime Minister Paul Keating set up CRCs (Critical Research Centres) to get Australian inventions moving toward commercial reality ..... the LNP killed it and under Abbott they also peeled back funding to bodies such as the CSIRO.  

Clearly LNP govts don't 'do' science - nor compassion. 

News Links: 

01/01/2022: Covid updates: Hospitalisations rise as NSW and Victoria record increase in coronavirus cases

01/01/2022: Victoria reaches daily record of 7,442 new COVID-19 cases, goverment disagreement around restrictions revealed. 

01/01/2022: NSW records 22,577 new COVID-19 cases and four deaths as number of people in ICU increases

01/01/2022:  Summer holiday 'staycations' become more palatable amid pandemic pain.

01/01/2022: Mask mandate expanded as Queensland records 2,266 new cases of COVID-19

 12/30/2021: Tasmanian Simon Boot talks through managing COVID-19 at home in a 'virtual ward'

12/31/2021 COVID@Home Program

12/29/2021: Tasmania's COVID-19 messaging evolves, with onus shifting to public for contact track and trace

11/16/2021: Some Tasmanians concerned about border reopening, but Premier Peter Gutwien says health care is ready.

10/22/2021: Tasmanian travel restrictions will ease on December 15. This is what the modelling shows will happen. 


Other Useful Links:

News Fact Check by RMIT & ABC

World Health Stats

Department of Health, Tasmania. Covid.

Tasmania Covid Exposure Sites.

Australian Medical Association

IN FULL: PM Scott Morrison announces new definition of close contacts | ABC News

 

 

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Australian Agriculture & Potential impact of Trumpian politics.

Australian Agriculture & Potential impact of Trump politics.  It's been a while, but it's time to start blogging again. If only ...