Covid Australia: Every Disaster Movie Starts With A Scientist Being Ignored.

Updated: 1st January 2022

It's the last day of 2021 and Australian heads are spinning. Instead of entering the New Year with all the usual expectation of potential and possibilities Australians now find themselves feeling angry and confused. The fear amongst many is palpable. 

 

In 1st wave, the Liberal National Coalition (LNP) Govt chose to sacrifice Australia’s elderly, until under state govts. took the imitative to start closing borders, initiate covid testing and mask wearing. All whilst Morrison told Australia he was 'off to the footy' that weekend.

 

This time the same govt has chosen to put Australian babies, toddlers and pre-schoolers at risk; these as hospitals overseas are experiencing surges in paediatric hospital admissions. 

 

The Australian Govt and State Govts are acting AGAINST advice of Australian Medical Association (AMA).

 

Not for the first time the Scott Morrison, Liberal National Coalition Govt has placed industry lobbyists and self-interest ahead of vulnerable Australians.

 

A growing number of Australians are equally disgusted with state Premiers for signing off on this. This had already been gaining momentum in Tasmania since around the 17th December 2021 when the state govt reopened the borders. Within hours Tasmanian's being notified of close and casual infections surfacing within a community, which had largely been Covid free. 

 

Today (12/31/2021) the Tasmanian Govt announced that it would no longer require mandatory testing for interstate members of the public entering the state. Whilst those attempting to obtain tests are reporting being informed not all testing costs will be covered by Medicare. Tasmania is a state with a healthcare system struggling on a good day and it's already clear, their contact and trace systems have become overwhelmed and no all but abandoned. 

Image: Aus Medical Assoc.

Madness, given Tasmanian Govt's own modeling showed:

Modelling scenarios

Borders open with no public health measures in place, but a high level of contact tracing

• 77,000 cases in 200 days
• 214 deaths
• 387 cases a day
• 636 cases in hospital, and 168 in intensive care during the peak of the outbreak

Borders open with current public health measures in place, and high level of contact tracing

• 52,000 cases in 200 days
• 87 deaths
• Possible daily peak of 242 cases
• 242 cases hospitalised, and 68 in intensive care at peak of outbreak

Borders open with increased public health measures, and high level of contact tracing

• 43,000 cases in 200 days
• 60 deaths
• 213 cases a day
• 179 cases hospitalised, and 56 in intensive care at the peak of outbreak.
•  

Yet within 17 day of opening the state to travelers, the state govt has decided to scale down contact tracing. Today (01/01/2022) 19 days after opening the state borders confirmed cases of Covid19 in Tasmania have sky rocketed from ZERO to 428 in <19days and there doesn't appear to be any modeling available for this scenario. Why not? Where is the modeling? How did Tasmania come to the conclusion it did?

 

There is every possibility that Tasmanian Hospitals will not cope with a rapidly escalating covid outbreak and if Tasmania follows overseas patterns - it does NOT have a dedicated children's hospital. Most Tasmanian's seem oblivious that the state's sickest children are normally made as stable as possible and flown to Melbourne - often with dedicated Paediatric Emergency Teams FROM Melbourne.

 

If Scott, (I refuse to call him Prime Minister, as an infected hair follicle on Disraeli’s ball sack would have make a better PM), wants Australians to ‘take responsibility for your own health’, I suggest we do this at next election and consign the Liberal & National Parties to history.

 

Australia was in a unique position, it had been hard fought for and within less than a month and against scientific and medical advice - it has been all too casually tossed aside, along with the health and lives of babies, toddlers, pre-schoolers, cancer patients, the immunocompromised.

 

Incidently, those Rapid Antigen Kits the Australian Govt is promising.... how many of you are aware, Australia LOST the development of these kits to the USA, because the Australian Govt wouldn't provide funding support - and the USA would. So again R&D was lost overseas: just add to the list after: black box flight recorder, solar panels, rapid chargers for EV's, Bluetooth, Ultra sound technology, LAN technology etc. Prime Minister Paul Keating set up CRCs (Critical Research Centres) to get Australian inventions moving toward commercial reality ..... the LNP killed it and under Abbott they also peeled back funding to bodies such as the CSIRO.  

Clearly LNP govts don't 'do' science - nor compassion. 

News Links: 

01/01/2022: Covid updates: Hospitalisations rise as NSW and Victoria record increase in coronavirus cases

01/01/2022: Victoria reaches daily record of 7,442 new COVID-19 cases, goverment disagreement around restrictions revealed. 

01/01/2022: NSW records 22,577 new COVID-19 cases and four deaths as number of people in ICU increases

01/01/2022:  Summer holiday 'staycations' become more palatable amid pandemic pain.

01/01/2022: Mask mandate expanded as Queensland records 2,266 new cases of COVID-19

 12/30/2021: Tasmanian Simon Boot talks through managing COVID-19 at home in a 'virtual ward'

12/31/2021 COVID@Home Program

12/29/2021: Tasmania's COVID-19 messaging evolves, with onus shifting to public for contact track and trace

11/16/2021: Some Tasmanians concerned about border reopening, but Premier Peter Gutwien says health care is ready.

10/22/2021: Tasmanian travel restrictions will ease on December 15. This is what the modelling shows will happen. 

Other Useful Links:

News Fact Check by RMIT & ABC

World Health Stats

Department of Health, Tasmania. Covid.

Tasmania Covid Exposure Sites.

Australian Medical Association

IN FULL: PM Scott Morrison announces new definition of close contacts | ABC News

 

 

Politics: The Unfolding Train Wreck.

What happens when rats are backed into a corner?

They turn on and attack each other. This is what we have witnessed in Australian politics since 2010 and it is the nation, which is suffering, due to this political instability.

Here are a few examples, chosen because each; as Douglas Adams would say demonstrate, ‘the inter-connectedness of all things’.

Climate Change:  

This should have been so simple, remaining a technical and scientific issue – not a political or religious one. Politicians routinely prove themselves to be completely incapable of addressing it, or in some cases understanding even the basic: causes, mechanisms or long-term consequences. Result, the biggest obstacle, to addressing both climate change AND energy prices to consumers is politics (and politicians).

Consequently carbon pollution has been given no value. All they had to do was give carbon a value and then address any further market failures, which arose – as they arose. This is basic Keep It Simple Stupid (KISS) principle booted in favor of 'Whats In It For Me (WIIFM) principles.

In other words, if from day 1 there had been a price for limiting carbon dioxide (burning coal) then there would have been an incentive long ago for producing energy which didn’t pollute. As an aside – lets remember that nuclear energy also pollutes, as nuclear waste.

As an example had a carbon price been placed on energy, in lets say the 1950’s, we probably would not have had a carbon based energy cycle, but most likely a hydrogen based cycle by now. Why because when you oxidise hydrogen – you get water!

Any carbon-pricing scheme that doesn’t put the final burn on the consumer is absolutely flawed.

We all need to stop thinking of things from a monetary price only, and start thinking and taking individual responsibility for the long-term environmental price. 

In the very least lets see politicians stop pronouncing the word ‘Economic’ as ‘Echo-nomic’. Instead let’s hear them say it as ‘Eco-nomic’. As in: Ecology, Ecological etc. In doing so perhaps they will remember (and subconsciously remind the nation) of the significant true costs AND that one cannot exist long term without the other.

Population Policy: 

Put simply – Australia doesn’t have one. Again the result of political myopia. Why isn't there a Population Policy and when can one be expected?

Health: 

Medicare and pretty much every part of Australia’s Health policy and systems are failing due to short political sightedness - based entirely on a political rotation.

Medicare gaps are increasing sharply, private health insurances do not cover the short fall adequately and what we are now seeing is a system, less like Britain’s NHS and more like the train wreck, which passes for the US system.

This is most certainly NOT in the best interest of any Australian, nor the national economy. It is not possible to have a functional economy without a healthy workforce. The only economically sound and humane national health care policy is one, which is able to provide quality universal healthcare at point of access. Anything less is a national disgrace.

Preventative measures, are of equal importance. Unfortunately, the results of those of the greatest benefit will never be seen immediately, but further down the track in 5, 10 or 15+ years time. Which means, they carry no political currency what so ever.

As an example let’s consider the sugar debate. We know sugar causes diabetes and many co-morbitiies. These result in human suffering and significant costs to national and state healthcare budget(s). Yet still Australia’s federal politicians refuse to introduce measures to combat this - now and into the future. Again, this is a serious issue with a very simple answer and again the game of politics gets in the way.

The simple answer is a sugar tax, on all processed sugars and processed foods containing sugars (including the hidden sugars), with 100% of taxes being put directly into preventative measures such diabetes clinics, vegetable gardens established in every Gov. school nationwide and compulsory healthy cooking curriculums across all schools nation wide. It wouldn’t be hard to work these gardens and cookery components in to other subjects such as science – at early learning, primary and secondary education levels.

Similar programs could also then be established within the border community, such as community gardens and private allotments rented from municipal councils.

Immigration Policy:

Australia needs a more humane policy. No one is suggesting a free for all, but serious questions need to be asked and addressed. What is the true political reason Australia is unwilling to hand those suffering in off shore detention centres, to New Zealand?

Australian politicians, post 911 have used vilification and fear not only as an election tool but also to as an excuse for their cruel and inhumane immigration and ‘border protection’ policies. In reality from the earliest days of recorded history humankind has inflicted acts of terrorism on their fellow man. In fact the greatest weapon of terrorism is not violence, but fear and demoralisation.

Successive Australian Governments have deliberately created an Us v’s Them narrative which is now becoming a flash point within Australian communities and providing terrorists with exactly the result they are aiming to achieve.

The only real long term solution here is to turn the country of origin into less off a shit hole, or war zone than it is. A situation, which is only going to escalate due to forced migration due to the impacts of climate change.

Conclusion:

Australia’s political system (indeed the West Minister System itself,) is always going to be a double-edged sword. A candidate, or party can be as altruistic (and logical) as they like, but if never elected it’s impossible to give it any affect.

Nationally the electorate has become so focused on ‘what’s in it for me’, rather than what’s best for the nation.

Howard on GST is a great example of this. Howard wasn’t going to bring in GST - but then did!

Yes, the GST is an inconvenience (aka pain in the a***) at a business level – but it was also always going to be in the national best interest.

As it was under the old Sale Tax System most people had no idea what, had and didn’t have sales tax on it, let alone what the rate was! In the end the High Court ruled that it was unconstitutional and so it had to go; a point I believe was lost on those voting against the GST at the time. Oh how different the political landscape may have been now had the majority grasped this simple concept and voted for John Hewson’s GST in the first place. 

The major screw up with the GST is all the exemptions. Had the GST been a blanket system across all goods and services, the initial rate would most likely have been 5%. My suspicion is that in the not too distant future it will rise to 15%.

Watching federal politics these days is like watching political Tinder, with the constant swipe left, swipe right. Could we please now have some political stability, cease the nasty games and have some bi-partisan moves to pass some logical, simple legislation / plegolicies which act and work for the nation far into future. Instead of self serving political interest, including the focus on winning the next bloody election and this ridiculous Right v’s Left narrative; a divide and conquer narrative, which again, serves no purpose other than to fuel the Us v’s Them narrative. It doesn’t reflect reality either. Nothing in life is simply black and white, there are and will always be shades between.

Now before anyone gets their knickers in a twist on each of these examples, I do intend to address each individually component individually in later blogs. So unwedgie your undies, make yourself a nice cup of tea, put any religious angles and angles to one side (as religion has no place in politics: S116 Australian Constitution) and have a proper meditate on each of the examples and over all view point given here. 

I'm also including a few links, below for those looking for further information. 

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

United Nations: Climate Change.

Major Reports: Climate Change.

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change onMigration and Conflict:

(Document: Research by / for World Bank). 

Climate Change Authority: Australian Government. 

Simon Holmes à Court    (and via Twitter) is a great place to find information links.